Posted 10/21/2006 10:51:00 AM by Douglas

Texas population, projected to 2040.

If Texas keeps growing as it has for the first half of this decade, the emptying trend in rural counties will accelerate and growth will virtually stall in many mid-sized urban pockets, according to new estimates released this week by the Texas State Data Center.

"What it probably calls attention to in a broad sense is that there's really some rural development issues that are pretty clear for West Texas, or they'll have some severe population loss in some areas," said Murdock, who cautions the projections merely show what Texas would look like at current growth rates and are not predictions.

Where rural Texas would decline, the Houston area would burst at the seams. Steady growth at the pace set from 2000 to 2004 would put Harris County at 6.6 million residents by 2040, nearly doubling since the 2000 census.

Lots of speculation in this, but not really a rosy outlook. $3 a gallon for gas and a 90 minute daily commute may have a lot to do to spur the growth of smaller towns.