Posted 6/16/2008 04:57:00 PM by Douglas

I have never been employed in a role of public trust to predict the future. I am not making light of the science of meteorology or the importance it has on our lives. But these ass-clowns need a big glass of shut the fuck up.

Imagine a Category 3 hurricane striking the western end of Bolivar Peninsula. The storm surge would raise water levels by 6 feet in Galveston Bay and along Galveston Island, according to computer models.

Now, imagine the same storm striking a mere 20 miles down the coast, just past the Galveston seawall. The surge would push as much as 17 feet of water into Galveston Bay and 13 feet along much of Galveston Island, clipping it from behind even if the seawall buttressed the initial waves.

The two landfall scenarios just 20 miles apart would mean the difference between excellent surfing conditions in Galveston and monstrous, fatal waves of water.

So it seems predicting said landfall becomes critically important when you're tasked with evacuating the fourth largest cities in the nation. Ya think?!?

For the Houston area, the worst-case scenario is a hurricane moving northwest and striking the Southeast Texas coast just west of Galveston Island. Such a Category 3 storm, according to storm-surge models, would bring maximum winds over downtown Houston and push a 20-foot surge into Galveston Bay. In such a scenario, everywhere from Channelview to downtown Houston to Bay City would be vulnerable to a surge, and millions would be asked to leave.

At one point during Hurricane Rita's evolution, that kind of scenario looked likely. But the storm turned north and came ashore near the Texas-Louisiana border. The evacuation from the Houston area proved deadlier than the hurricane.

Yeah, remember that? You yelled run! on a crowded freeway and 120 people are dead because of it. As mayor of a city of four million people, your job duties extend beyond kissing babies and cutting ribbons at shopping centers. An evacuation plan means you have a plan, not just telling people they should leave. But it gets better.

The storm surge forecasting tool, known as the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes model, is accurate to within 20 percent if given perfect information about a storm's landfall time and location. But such information is rarely perfect.

Three days out — roughly the minimum time needed to call a mass evacuation in the greater Houston area — the error is about 150 miles.

For those keeping score, a difference of a mere 20 miles is the difference between me sitting in my back yard watching the wind blow my neighbor's yard furniture and me sitting on my roof waiting for a helicopter, yet they won't know within 150 miles by the time I need to know so I can get the fuck out. Am I the only one that sees a problem with the math, here? So what are the geniuses doing with this great information?

So are the SLOSH model forecasts, but the folks running them would prefer to keep them out of the public's hands, at least prior to landfall. They don't want people who live outside areas projected to get the worst flooding to feel a false sense of comfort.

I missed that the first time I read it, but their computer model is named SLOSH.
SLOSH?!? As is what the bay is going to do to my house, or how I'm going to die in my attic? Could you be more specific? Also, if SLOSH is so inaccurate that you can't even tell the people its results, why the hell do you bother wasting your and our times with it?!? We've all got a nickel we can toss in the air to figure out if we need to evacuate or not. I just had no idea my nickel was just as accurate. Finally, here's the money quote:

But evacuation managers live in the real, maddening world in which nature still cannot be forecast with enough precision to really matter.

Finally! A self-congratulatory government worker admitting their own obsolescence. You don't matter. Shut up.

People on the Gulf Coast are going to do what they've always done. Most of those in low-lying areas are going to get the hell out of here at the first sight of a storm. Those that stay will probably die if the storm hits. What we don't need is government fear-mongers scaring the shit out of people that live 50-70 miles inland clogging up the roads for those that live 11 feet above sea level.